Tropical Storm Kiko Forming in East Pacific

Tropical Storm KIKO

Tropical Storm KIKO	800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 ...KIKO EXPECTED TO WEAKEN  INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...
WIND:	NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WATCHES/ WARNINGS:	NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT
SHIP IMPACT:	NO CRUISE SHIPS IMPACTED

      Storm Archive       Graphics Archive

A new tropical depression, TD 11-E formed Friday night and is expected to become Tropical Storm Kiko on Saturday.  It is currently well southwest of Mexico.  The storm is expected to begin weakening on Sunday.

NHC ACTIVE STORMS (CLICK HERE)

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MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANES (CLICK HERE)

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SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 116.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

 Historical Data:

800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013
 
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...

200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013
 
...DEPRESSION HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED TO BECOME TROPICAL STORM
KIKO...

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Tropical Storm Juliette in East Pacific

Tropical Storm JULIETTE

Post-Tropical JULIETTE	800 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 ...JULIETTE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
WIND:	NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WATCHES/ WARNINGS:	NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT
SHIP IMPACT:	NO CRUISE SHIPS IMPACTED

      Storm Archive       Graphics Archive

A small tropical storm formed off the coast of Baja California peninsula prompting tropical storm warnings for the area. It has since weakened into a post-tropical cyclone.

NHC ACTIVE STORMS (CLICK HERE)

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MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANES (CLICK HERE)

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SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 114.8W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM NW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSE OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

 Historical Data:

200 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013
 
...SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORMS NEAR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...

500 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013
 
...CENTER OF JULIETTE APPROACHING CABO SAN LUCAS...

RAINFALL...JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA.

800 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013
 
...JULIETTE WEAKENS AS IT MOVES ALONG THE WEST COAST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... 

200 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013
 
...JULIETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

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Unexpected Dry Dock Ends Alaska Sailing Season Early

Celebrity Millennium

2013 Alaska Season

Over in Ketchikan

Celebrity Millennium has been experiencing mechanical problems since early August, resulting in the early termination of its latest cruise and cancellation of 4 sailings ending the Alaska sailing season early for the vessel.

During the August 2nd sailing, the ship was delayed coming into port at the end of the cruise.   The ship made news as it was stranded in Seward during the August 9th sailing for emergency repairs. The ship bypassed all ports, sailing directly to Vancouver.

The final straw was on the August 16th sailing when the ship was stranded in Ketchikan in need of additional repairs.  Celebrity then decided to cancel the four remaining cruises and transition the ship to Freeport, Bahamas where it can undergo maintenance at the dry dock facility.

Celebrity Cruises provided charted air transportation for all passengers as well as compensation for the cancelled cruises.   

This is not the first time this year that Celebrity Millennium has had propulsion problems.   Itineraries were impacted in April (see Celebrity Millennium Itinerary Change).

 Propulsion: 2 × 19 MW Rolls-Royce/Alstom Mermaid azimuth thrusters

The Celebrity Millennium-class were the first of the larger class ships to be introduced to the Celebrity fleet later being  joined by the modern and popular Solstice-class ships.   Propulsion problems have often occurred with the azipod system, which improves maneuverability of the vessel.  In many of the previous cases, problems could be repaired by the onboard mechanics.   When they can't be resolved, unexpected dry docks, like the current one, result.

Hopefully the impacted passengers will be able to return to Alaska another time.  We are certain that Celebrity Cruises made the decision to cancel the remaining cruises after exhausting all other options.

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Tropical Storm Fernand Forms in Atlantic

Interactive Map of Fernand

Tropical Storm FERNAND

Tropical Storm FERNAND	400 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 ...FERNAND DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
WIND:	NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WATCHES/ WARNINGS:	NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT
SHIP IMPACT:	NONE

Storm Archive       Graphics Archive

A new cyclone system formed  in the soutwestern Bay of Campeche prompting warnings for portions of the Gulf Coast of Mexico.  The tropical depression grew into Tropical Storm Fernand.

NHC ACTIVE STORMS (CLICK HERE)

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MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANES (CLICK HERE)

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SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 98.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM FERNAND AND ITS REMNANTS OF 4 TO
8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN
PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI
MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. 
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. 

HISTORICAL DATA:

400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF GULF COAST OF
MEXICO... 

600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013
 
...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND OVER THE
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...

100 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013
 
...FERNAND BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND...
...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM VERACRUZ NORTHWARD TO BARRA DE NAUTLA

700 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013
 
...FERNAND BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO EASTERN MEXICO...

1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013
 
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN MEXICO AS FERNAND
WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

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Norwegian Plans for Belize

What Does it Cost to Buy 

an Island in Belize?

According to new sources in Belize, a press conference was held this week unveiling details of an agreement between Norwegian Cruise Line and the Belize government to begin development of a new cruise destination in the southern part of the country.

Norwegian Cruise Line is keeping details quiet, perhaps since they have already been shot down once before by the government.   However, the news reports indicate the price for the island is $50M USD.  The new development will be called Harvest Caye and be an eco-friendly endeavor.   The project could be completed in 2015.

Two of the main figures at the press conference were Colin Murphy - VP, Destination & Strategic Development, NCL and Hon. Godwin Hulse - Minister of Labour.  If you watch the following video, you'll hear the minister say “It is not, as some would say, that we are all lying down, ‘licky licky,’ et cetera. We are here to protect the interest of the Belizean people – so that is why we were brought to Government and that is what we are going to do and we are going to do so successfully. No ifs, maybes or buts about it,” Hulse added.

Colin Murphy didn't know what "licky likcy" was but figured he would have known about it if there had been any.  Apparently that is slang for greedy.

Time: 00:30:41 - Start of press coverage of announcement

If the project is approved and actually goes forward, the construction phase could bring 1000+ jobs to the region. NCL is also sweetening the deal by recruiting more of their onboard staff from Belize. Currently there are very few crew members from this country. 

References:

Will Harvest Caye Take Ships From Belize City?
No “licky licky,” says Godwin Hulse

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Hurricane Predictions for Remainder of 2013 Atlantic Season

What's the Remainder of 2013 Atlantic 

Hurricane Season Look Like?

Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2013 (PDF)
The tropical Meteorology Project at Colorado State University looks at the Atlantic Hurricane Season forecast several times a year.   The initial forecast is released in early April with the second report being released at the start of the season in June.

We are now entering what typically is the start of the active part of the season with storms forming in the vicinity of Cape Verde Islands.   The chart above reflects the storms to date along with the revised forecast.

COLORADO STATE UNIVERSITY FORECAST OF ATLANTIC HURRICANE 

ACTIVITY FROM AUGUST 16 – AUGUST 29, 2013;  August 30 - September 12, 2013

According to the report:  

"We continue to anticipate an above-average season in 2013, although we have lowered our forecast slightly due to anomalous cooling in the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic. We expect an above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall"

Not "Out of the Woods"

At first read, you might think we have nothing to worry about.  Well, if you review the chart closely, you'll notice there have not been any major hurricanes in the Atlantic so far this year, however, there are at least 3 still predicted.   That means, there's a lot of potential for a powerful storm.

Read the entire article (PDF link above) to get complete details about their forecast, including background information about how they come to these conclusions.

NOAA Adjusts Prediction

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service, released it's updated outlook which still indicates a 70 percent chance of an above-normal season. 

The Atlantic hurricane season got off to a busy start, with 5 named storms to date, and may have a busy second half.  The revised numbers are as follows:

• 13 to 19 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including
  • 6 to 9 hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which
  • 3 to 5 could be major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)

Read the complete report:  NOAA: Atlantic hurricane season on track to be above-normal

Additional References
NOAA 2013 Hurricane Season Predictions 
CSU 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Prediction

NOAA predicts a near-normal 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA predicts near-normal Eastern Pacific hurricane season 

NOAA expects below-normal Central Pacific hurricane season  

Extended Range Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2012 - PDF Format

Atlantic Hurricane Summary Archive 

2011 Atlantic Hurricane Season 

Active 2011 hurricane season breaks 'Hurricane Amnesia' 

The 2011 North Atlantic Hurricane Season A Climate Perspective 

2011 Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season - National Hurricane Center

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Tropical Storm Erin Formed in Atlantic

Interactive Map of Erin

Tropical Storm ERIN

Tropical Storm ERIN	500 PM AST SUN AUG 18 2013 ...ERIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
WIND:	NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
WATCHES/ WARNINGS:	NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT
SHIP IMPACT:	NONE

Storm Archive       Graphics Archive

The fifth Tropical storm of the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season formed over the far east Atlantic prompting the government Cape Verde Islands to issue  Watches and Warnings.  Erin strengthened into a tropical storm and then weakened into a depression a couple times.  Will it regenerate as it continues?

NHC ACTIVE STORMS (CLICK HERE)

Real-Time Cruise Ship Tracking

MORE INFORMATION ABOUT HURRICANES (CLICK HERE)

Not the storm you are looking for?  Click Image or Here

  
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 39.8W
ABOUT 1080 MI...1740 KM WNW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
 

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HISTORICAL DATA:

1100 PM AST WED AUG 14 2013
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE FAR EAST ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS... 

800 AM AST THU AUG 15 2013
...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ERIN WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS... 

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS OF MAIO...SANTIAGO...FOGO...AND
BRAVA

1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013
...ERIN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION... 

1100 PM AST FRI AUG 16 2013
...ERIN IS A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN... 

1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013
...ERIN WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AGAIN... 

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